0x500fadcf69e85579f4d6d876d0f7de77f9b3def6
0x500fadcf69e85579f4d6d876d0f7de77f9b3def6
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$21.77
Total PnL
$1.27
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Will Warsh say "Holding" during July Press Conference?
4 shares @ 54.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$3.67
$1.69
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
3 shares @ 78.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$2.56
$0.56
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?
3 shares @ 62.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$2.09
$0.20
- YES
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
4 shares @ 49.9¢·now 49.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.99
$-0.00
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
9 shares @ 22.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.95
$-0.05
- NO
Another pandemic before GTA VI?
4 shares @ 51.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.93
$-0.02
- YES
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?
4 shares @ 51.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.93
$-0.02
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
4 shares @ 51.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.93
$-0.02
- YES
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?
4 shares @ 51.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.93
$-0.02
- YES
Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the July meeting?
2 shares @ 76.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.79
$0.25
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Holding" during July Press Conference?$2.02Jul 29, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother pandemic before GTA VI?$2.00Jul 29, 08:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew Rihanna Album before GTA VI?$2.00Jul 28, 22:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Boeing say "Guidance" during earnings call?$0.00Jul 28, 17:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill UPS (UPS) beat quarterly earnings?$2.79Jul 28, 13:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?$2.04Jul 28, 05:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Michigan remarks?$0.00Jul 28, 01:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Ethanol" during Michigan remarks?$2.03Jul 28, 00:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?$2.00Jul 27, 20:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Boeing say "Guidance" during earnings call?$1.93Jul 27, 05:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Michigan remarks?$1.44Jul 26, 17:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Ethanol" during Michigan remarks?$1.44Jul 26, 05:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UPS (UPS) beat quarterly earnings?$2.01Jul 25, 17:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?$2.00Jul 25, 05:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Iran" 3+ times during White House Correspondents Dinner?$3.00Jul 25, 05:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 Week of July 20 2026?$3.05Jul 24, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Iran" 3+ times during White House Correspondents Dinner?$1.08Jul 24, 17:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?$0.00Jul 24, 12:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?$3.23Jul 24, 12:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the July meeting?$1.56Jul 24, 05:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
19 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 19
- Avg trade size
- $1.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 05:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 16:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.