Noisy-Broadcast
0x503219429c94b286e1081a03a698494df817d779
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
200
Open notional
$26.53
Total PnL
$-420.90
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
33 shares @ 6.0¢·now 30.9¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$10.28
$8.28
- YES
Will September be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?
42 shares @ 12.0¢·now 15.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$6.25
$1.25
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 1.7¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.75
$1.75
- YES
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
6 shares @ 31.0¢·now 36.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.35
$0.35
- YES
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
11 shares @ 9.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$1.39
$0.39
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?
32 shares @ 15.8¢·now 4.1¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.30
$-3.70
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: Other
184 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- YES
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
8 shares @ 37.6¢·now 11.2¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$0.89
$-2.11
- YES
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
9 shares @ 23.0¢·now 3.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$0.30
$-1.70
- WILD
Wild vs. Lightning
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Bernie say "ChatGPT" or "OpenAI" during Minneapolis Rally?$1.04Jul 20, 20:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bernie say "Data Center" during Minneapolis Rally?$1.03Jul 20, 20:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bernie say "Election" during Minneapolis Rally?$1.04Jul 20, 20:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bernie say "Poverty" during Minneapolis Rally?$1.03Jul 20, 20:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bernie say "Tariff" during Minneapolis Rally?$1.03Jul 20, 20:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bernie say "Afford", "Affordable", or "Affordability" during Minneapolis Rally?$1.03Jul 20, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bernie say "Middle Class" or "Working Class" during Minneapolis Rally?$1.03Jul 20, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bernie say "Billionaire" 3+ times during Minneapolis Rally?$1.04Jul 20, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 21?$1.04Jul 20, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 21?$1.03Jul 20, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 21?$1.04Jul 20, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on July 21?$1.05Jul 20, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 21?$1.04Jul 20, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$1.03Jul 20, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYClarity Act signed into law in 2026?$2.06Jul 20, 20:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 20?$5.26Jul 20, 15:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$6.33Jul 20, 01:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 20?$1.04Jul 20, 00:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 20?$1.04Jul 20, 00:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Argentina win on 2026-07-15?$7.14Jul 15, 21:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $1.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 5, 22:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 20:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.