Wallet digest

active

Activity score

33/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.8K

Realised

$-698.99

Win rate

59 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 60

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET
273 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026
$0.00
$-15.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET
212 shares @ 39.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026
$0.00
$-83.36
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET
207 shares @ 38.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026
$0.00
$-80.39
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET
167 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET
162 shares @ 30.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026
$0.00
$-50.00
YES
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?
162 shares @ 27.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970
$0.00
$-44.79
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET
158 shares @ 36.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026
$0.00
$-57.09
NO
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
137 shares @ 37.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026
$0.00
$-50.85
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET
137 shares @ 29.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026
$0.00
$-40.02
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET
133 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00

Recent activity

REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in London be 6°C on May 15?$0.00May 16, 03:39 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET$50.60May 15, 17:41 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$0.00May 15, 17:37 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET$50.75May 15, 17:37 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET$45.68May 15, 17:37 UTC
TRADESELLConfirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31?$10.30May 15, 17:35 UTC
TRADESELLWill Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$11.52May 15, 17:35 UTC
TRADESELLNo-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?$23.78May 15, 17:34 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$0.00May 15, 17:33 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$50.78May 15, 17:31 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$1.41May 15, 17:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$1.37May 15, 17:30 UTC
TRADESELLStarmer out by June 30, 2026?$31.19May 15, 17:30 UTC
TRADESELLStarmer out by December 31, 2026?$12.34May 15, 17:29 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$0.00May 15, 17:28 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$41.96May 15, 17:25 UTC
TRADESELLStarmer out by December 31, 2026?$49.35May 15, 17:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$40.18May 15, 17:22 UTC
TRADESELLConfirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 31?$0.77May 15, 17:22 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET$0.00May 15, 17:21 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

63/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

8% win rate over 59 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

59 closed markets, 8% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity41 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry68 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk30 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 44
Avg trade size: $18.81
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 14, 21:54 UTC
Last active: May 16, 03:39 UTC
Win rate sample: 59 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 13:49:23 UTC·src:Polymarket Data