Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Probability
11¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$495.70
Liquidity
$31.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
+4.6pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5991.4h
- 08:34SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5991h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.3pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.9pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.7pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.4pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.7pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.1pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.4pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.3pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.2pp
to 18¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.3pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.6pp
to 16¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.8pp
to 12¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.9pp
to 12¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.9pp
to 12¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.9pp
to 12¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.9pp
to 12¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.8pp
to 12¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.8pp
to 12¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.8pp
to 12¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 14¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.3pp
to 12¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.4pp
to 12¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.4pp
to 12¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).