No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?
Probability
20¢
1h
-2.0pp
24h
-6.0pp
24h Vol
$435.71
Liquidity
$15.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1572.5h
- 11:31SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1572h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 11:31PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.0pp
to 20¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 22¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 22¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 22¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 22¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 22¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 22¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 22¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 23¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 23¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 23¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 23¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 26¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 26¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 26¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 26¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a motion of no-confidence against the sitting government is voted upon in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on whether a motion of no confidence is voted upon in the specified timeframe. Whether the motion is passed will not affect this market’s resolution. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).