Unwieldy-Stamp
0x506bce138df20695c03cd5a59a937499fb00b0fe
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
148
Open notional
$28.50
Total PnL
$-89.0K
Realised
$-11.0K
Win rate
3%
121 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 148- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?
1000 shares @ 6.0¢·now 2.9¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$28.50
$-31.50
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
221738 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-10.9K
- YES
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23?
52000 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-2.6K
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
38001 shares @ 5.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.0K
- YES
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?
32727 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-3.6K
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
26000 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-197.65
- MOUZ
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage
17745 shares @ 10.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.9K
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET
14195 shares @ 44.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-6.3K
- YES
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw?
14137 shares @ 29.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$0.00
$-4.2K
- YES
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
11956 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-73.58
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Aug 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 13, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 10, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 9, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 8, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 7, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 6, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 5, 02:33 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 4, 00:12 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$26.59Aug 3, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 3, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 2, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET$0.00Aug 2, 06:46 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 2, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET$0.00Aug 2, 06:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
3% win rate over 121 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
121 closed markets, 3% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $17.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 2, 06:44 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 121 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.