Firsthand-Yourself
0x507c6d489e56dcff9fe0687f45c4211e73084166
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
47
Open notional
$269.95
Total PnL
$-1.9K
Realised
$-85.23
Win rate
41%
32 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 47- NO
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
112 shares @ 30.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$48.71
$15.12
- NO
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
47 shares @ 68.0¢·now 81.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$38.07
$6.11
- NO
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
62 shares @ 59.0¢·now 57.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$35.44
$-1.14
- NO
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch?
77 shares @ 33.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$30.32
$4.99
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?
33 shares @ 74.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$29.87
$5.45
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
67 shares @ 47.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$29.14
$-2.34
- YES
Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?
26 shares @ 33.1¢·now 91.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.90
$15.27
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?
82 shares @ 45.0¢·now 18.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$14.76
$-22.14
- NO
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
13 shares @ 76.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.72
$1.88
- YES
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?
138 shares @ 17.0¢·now 5.8¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$8.00
$-15.46
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 9, 00:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 8, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 7, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 6, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 5, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 4, 00:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
63/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
41% win rate over 32 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
32 closed markets, 41% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 32 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.