Secondary-Card
0x50a3b6cb6fe6b987cdd541c8270fe855ed140a78
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
18
Open notional
$224.51
Total PnL
$-127.31
Realised
$-1.58
Win rate
33%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?
196 shares @ 30.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$32.31
$-26.44
- NO
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?
38 shares @ 57.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$28.37
$6.95
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch?
66 shares @ 74.8¢·now 37.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$24.75
$-24.60
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?
76 shares @ 66.9¢·now 32.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$24.72
$-26.20
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?
50 shares @ 77.5¢·now 47.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$23.75
$-15.01
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?
97 shares @ 52.5¢·now 20.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$19.88
$-31.02
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?
174 shares @ 9.7¢·now 9.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$16.92
$-0.02
- NO
Quantum breaks Bitcoin by December 31, 2027?
18 shares @ 78.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$15.75
$1.79
- YES
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?
135 shares @ 17.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.54
$-7.43
- NO
Will BNP Paribas fail by end of 2026?
7 shares @ 95.0¢·now 97.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.94
$0.15
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?$0.00Jul 23, 10:16 UTC
- REDEEMU.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?$0.00Jul 23, 10:16 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?$0.00Jul 23, 10:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?$0.00Jul 23, 10:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture all of Bilytske by June 30?$0.00Jul 23, 10:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?$0.01Jul 23, 10:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?$0.00Jul 23, 10:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$0.00Jul 23, 10:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$0.00Jul 23, 10:16 UTC
- REDEEMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?$0.00Jul 23, 10:16 UTC
- REDEEMPutin out as President of Russia by June 30?$0.00Jul 23, 10:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 26, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?$1.79Jun 25, 14:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?$1.85Jun 25, 14:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?$2.05Jun 25, 14:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?$2.29Jun 25, 14:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$2.49Jun 25, 14:03 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?$4.07Jun 25, 14:03 UTC
- TRADESELLMiguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?$4.34Jun 25, 14:02 UTC
- TRADESELLHamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026?$4.51Jun 25, 14:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
19 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 19
- Avg trade size
- $9.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 8, 11:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 10:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.