Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?

1. 1

   Down 3pp over 24h

   Now 25¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 1565h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $18.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.