Rowdy-Tenement
0x510f4963b66b1b18505faab74b0bb943d1dda43c
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.2K
Total PnL
$-1.9K
Realised
$613.07
Win rate
90%
153 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
120 shares @ 91.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$108.60
$-0.60
- NO
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?
120 shares @ 81.7¢·now 81.1¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$97.33
$-0.72
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 29?
90 shares @ 95.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$80.55
$-4.95
- NO
Will Christine Fréchette be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?
100 shares @ 80.7¢·now 77.8¢·exp Oct 5, 2026$77.88
$-3.00
- NO
Will Mateus Simões win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?
85 shares @ 83.3¢·now 77.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$65.40
$-5.20
- YES
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?
90 shares @ 76.5¢·now 70.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$63.51
$-5.38
- YES
Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?
71 shares @ 84.4¢·now 81.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$57.80
$-2.08
- NO
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.30 and $2.60 on July 31, 2026?
75 shares @ 84.6¢·now 73.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$54.71
$-8.67
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on July 29?
83 shares @ 45.3¢·now 45.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$37.55
$0.19
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
79 shares @ 81.1¢·now 43.2¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$34.18
$-30.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 28?$2.32Jul 28, 16:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Boyko Borissov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?$5.41Jul 28, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$23.97Jul 28, 16:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 28?$5.00Jul 28, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China's annual inflation in 2026 be less than -1.0%?$0.04Jul 28, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China's annual inflation in 2026 be less than -1.0%?$0.09Jul 28, 16:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China's annual inflation in 2026 be less than -1.0%?$13.87Jul 28, 16:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.1% and 1.5%?$3.48Jul 28, 16:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.1% and 1.5%?$8.26Jul 28, 16:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China's annual inflation in 2026 be less than -1.0%?$15.86Jul 28, 16:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 29?$0.29Jul 28, 16:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 30+ times during cabinet meeting?$1.92Jul 28, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on July 29?$5.37Jul 28, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 29?$0.86Jul 28, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Philip Sarnecki win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?$9.03Jul 28, 16:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 29?$1.55Jul 28, 16:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on July 29?$1.00Jul 28, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on July 28?$17.08Jul 28, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Netanyahu not shake hands by July 31, 2026?$10.59Jul 28, 16:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?$3.51Jul 28, 16:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
90% win rate over 153 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.
153 closed markets, 90% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $9.39
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 16:29 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 16:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 153 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.