Rowdy-Tenement
0x510f4963b66b1b18505faab74b0bb943d1dda43c
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$573.91
Total PnL
$-2.0K
Realised
$503.88
Win rate
89%
150 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 29?
90 shares @ 95.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$77.85
$-7.65
- NO
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?
90 shares @ 81.7¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$71.47
$-2.02
- NO
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
75 shares @ 91.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$68.63
$0.38
- YES
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?
90 shares @ 76.5¢·now 70.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$63.51
$-5.38
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
79 shares @ 81.1¢·now 42.4¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$33.59
$-30.59
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
79 shares @ 51.6¢·now 32.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$25.69
$-15.10
- NO
Will Michael Carbonara be the FL-22 Republican nominee?
76 shares @ 45.3¢·now 31.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$23.57
$-10.91
- NO
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
63 shares @ 39.1¢·now 37.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$23.49
$-1.30
- YES
Will Sal Stewart win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?
120 shares @ 30.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Dec 19, 2026$21.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will Josh Tenorio win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?
66 shares @ 41.8¢·now 31.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$20.42
$-7.12
Recent activity
- MERGEWill the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?$30.00Jul 28, 17:57 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in London be 33°C on July 29?$6.03Jul 28, 17:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026?$25.61Jul 28, 17:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on July 28?$1.60Jul 28, 17:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?$6.92Jul 28, 17:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 33°C on July 29?$1.23Jul 28, 17:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on July 28?$6.56Jul 28, 17:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 33°C on July 29?$1.23Jul 28, 17:55 UTC
- MERGEU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$0.00Jul 28, 17:55 UTC
- MERGEU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$30.09Jul 28, 17:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$23.78Jul 28, 17:55 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 30?$45.00Jul 28, 17:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 30?$26.16Jul 28, 17:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Orikhiv by September 30, 2026?$28.80Jul 28, 17:52 UTC
- MERGEWill OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by July 31?$29.10Jul 28, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by July 31?$4.13Jul 28, 17:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?$12.85Jul 28, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYUnit FDV above $1B one day after launch?$0.63Jul 28, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on July 29?$0.21Jul 28, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on July 29?$0.03Jul 28, 17:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
89% win rate over 150 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
150 closed markets, 89% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $10.42
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 17:47 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 17:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 150 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.