Excited-Return
0x512f86998daf1051137ae05acf02488528b1f981
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$397.04
Total PnL
$-106.25
Realised
$-3.20
Win rate
33%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- NO
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
313 shares @ 97.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$313.00
$7.23
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET
42 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 6, 2025$42.00
$2.10
- YES
Will DoorDash report 900 million or more total orders in Q4 2025?
39 shares @ 58.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$39.00
$16.38
- NO
Will "Elon" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
2 shares @ 44.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$2.00
$1.12
- NO
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 18, 2026?
1 shares @ 61.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$1.00
$0.39
- YES
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?
1 shares @ 64.0¢·now 2.3¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.02
$-0.62
- YES
French election called by June 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 30.0¢·now 1.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.01
$-0.29
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?
682 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-15.23
- NO
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
97 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-9.66
- SAINT JOSEPHS HAWKS
Saint Joseph's Hawks vs. Syracuse Orange
80 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 22, 2025$0.00
$-40.80
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during Panthers visit?$5.31Jan 15, 20:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel annex any territory by June 30?$1.19Jan 15, 20:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel annex any territory by June 30?$3.78Jan 15, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel annex any territory by June 30?$3.96Jan 15, 15:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel annex any territory by June 30?$0.34Jan 15, 15:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$4.10Jan 15, 15:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$6.56Jan 15, 13:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$10.79Jan 15, 12:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?$4.02Jan 15, 11:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?$14.07Jan 15, 11:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?$18.63Jan 15, 10:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike Lebanon on January 18, 2026?$14.64Jan 15, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYSaint Joseph's Hawks vs. Syracuse Orange$7.14Jan 15, 07:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYSaint Joseph's Hawks vs. Syracuse Orange$10.20Jan 15, 07:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?$6.25Jan 15, 07:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in January?$4.05Jan 15, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in January 2026?$6.00Jan 15, 06:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Liam rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?$9.35Jan 15, 06:04 UTC
- TRADESELLFrench election called by June 30, 2026?$2.31Jan 15, 05:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Lebanon on January 18, 2026?$15.25Jan 15, 04:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $6.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 14, 22:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 15, 20:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".