Wallet profile

Complex-Propane

0x515e2144bf38402568979db4ea7f6b64636c8309

activity 95/100

Wallet digest

whale

Activity score

95/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

37

Open notional

$229.6K

Total PnL

$-54.8K

Realised

$25.2K

Win rate

100%

7 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 37

Recent activity

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

Ledger volume

$95.7K

Trades

1

Buy share

92%

Window

May 27, 22:10 UTC → Jun 15, 03:16 UTC

Last 30 days · daily volumemax $0.00

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

17/100
read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

Thin resolved sample

Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.

PnL is mostly mark-to-market

Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.

High mirror risk

Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

100% win rate over 7 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal
block

Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.

Resolved-only track record
review

7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$35.0K

1 trades

Buy share

92%

Sample

limited

6 ledger trades

Top market concentration

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

$35.0K · 37% of recorded whale volume

Recorded market concentration

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?37% of recorded volume$35.0KUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?21% of recorded volume$20.3KUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?20% of recorded volume$18.8K

Profile dimensions

Activity62 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence23 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry32 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk82 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
18
Avg trade size
$2.4K
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
Jun 30, 21:52 UTC
Last active
Jul 2, 03:50 UTC
Win rate sample
7 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 04:15:05 UTC·src:Polymarket Data