Scholarly-Chemotaxis
0x51c71f394f119d1b6838415b85acb4aef50688cb
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
21
Open notional
$2.3K
Total PnL
$-345.32
Realised
$92.09
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
1000 shares @ 90.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$905.00
$5.00
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?
200 shares @ 98.9¢·now 98.6¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$197.10
$-0.70
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in July?
200 shares @ 99.0¢·now 97.4¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$194.70
$-3.30
- NO
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December?
200 shares @ 96.4¢·now 97.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$194.50
$1.70
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
200 shares @ 94.8¢·now 97.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$194.13
$4.50
- NO
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December?
200 shares @ 95.2¢·now 97.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$193.89
$3.50
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?
100 shares @ 98.7¢·now 98.9¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$98.85
$0.15
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
100 shares @ 82.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$94.50
$12.50
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?
100 shares @ 96.2¢·now 92.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$92.55
$-3.65
- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
50 shares @ 86.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$46.25
$3.25
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?$213.66Jul 22, 20:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?$200.00Jul 22, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?$270.00Jul 22, 09:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$194.19Jul 22, 09:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$3.61Jul 22, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?$150.70Jul 22, 03:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?$19.86Jul 22, 03:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?$18.73Jul 22, 03:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?$293.47Jul 22, 01:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?$122.87Jul 21, 21:37 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$10.23Jul 21, 18:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?$9.31Jul 21, 16:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 21?$60.00Jul 21, 16:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?$98.75Jul 21, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in July?$198.08Jul 21, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in July?$96.35Jul 21, 16:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 TOUR Championship?$15.76Jul 21, 16:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ryan Gerard win the 2026 TOUR Championship?$39.58Jul 21, 16:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 21?$47.00Jul 21, 15:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
25 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 66/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $87.35
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 01:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 20:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.