Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December?
Probability
6¢
1h
+0.1pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$38.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.2pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5980h with open resolution ambiguity.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5980.3h
- 19:41SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5980h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-0.0pp over the last 24h, now 6¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Gold (GC) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of December 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, reAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
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