Flat-Tragedy
0x51ff1e747cbd08169699f03b315bd19db38bc389
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
35
Open notional
$171.44
Total PnL
$-25.91
Realised
$-5.96
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 35- NO
Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?
29 shares @ 81.1¢·now 96.2¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$27.95
$4.37
- NO
Robinhood launches prediction market through MIAXdx by March 31?
24 shares @ 94.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$24.00
$1.36
- NO
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
20 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$20.00
$2.20
- YES
Will Alexander Vindman be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida?
20 shares @ 89.3¢·now 96.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$19.19
$1.33
- YES
Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?
20 shares @ 81.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$14.30
$-1.90
- NO
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
7 shares @ 51.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$6.60
$3.23
- NO
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?
7 shares @ 69.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$6.60
$2.05
- NO
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed by March 31?
6 shares @ 96.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$5.84
$0.20
- YES
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?
6 shares @ 68.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$5.84
$1.87
- NO
Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?
20 shares @ 19.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$5.70
$1.90
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?$0.33Mar 13, 10:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?$0.60Mar 13, 08:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hamas agree to disarm by March 31?$0.20Mar 13, 02:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?$1.93Mar 13, 00:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?$3.97Mar 13, 00:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?$3.37Mar 13, 00:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?$2.24Mar 13, 00:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?$4.55Mar 12, 23:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYCap on gambling loss deductions repealed by March 31?$5.64Mar 12, 23:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYCap on gambling loss deductions repealed by March 31?$0.23Mar 12, 23:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?$0.99Mar 12, 23:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?$2.05Mar 12, 22:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?$10.80Mar 12, 22:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?$1.05Mar 12, 22:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?$9.40Mar 12, 22:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthony Cirelli win the 2025–2026 NHL Frank J. Selke Trophy?$3.25Mar 12, 22:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?$2.09Mar 11, 22:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?$2.09Mar 11, 22:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?$2.09Mar 11, 22:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?$2.09Mar 11, 22:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $4.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 9, 13:27 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 13, 10:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.