Spain snap election called by June 30, 2026?
Probability
8¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
-5.5pp
24h Vol
$1.1K
Liquidity
$18.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 11¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 11¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 11¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 11¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 11¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 14¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 13¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Spanish general election is scheduled between October 21, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market is about whether a date for the next Spanish election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Spain however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- —
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).