Thick-Barge
0x52a226d45af5472344a314fa2aec729b8751ca13
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
47
Open notional
$56.91
Total PnL
$-182.62
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 47- YES
Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027?
55 shares @ 96.5¢·now 57.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$31.74
$-21.57
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 1?
25 shares @ 88.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$25.17
$2.82
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on January 29?
204 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 29, 2026$0.00
$-5.31
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 26?
188 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.69
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C on March 4?
165 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.31
- YES
Will the price of Solana be between $130 and $140 on January 30?
161 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.13
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - March 30, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET
142 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.28
- YES
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on January 27?
132 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-3.16
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on February 27?
121 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-2.90
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 20?
119 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-3.10
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on July 17?$1.91Jul 16, 21:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 9?$3.66Jul 8, 21:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18?$1.47May 18, 08:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on April 14?$105.60May 10, 11:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - April 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET$4.67Apr 28, 07:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - April 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET$50.60Apr 28, 07:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on April 27?$53.32Apr 27, 19:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on April 27?$0.12Apr 27, 08:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on April 27?$51.87Apr 27, 06:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on April 14?$0.29Apr 14, 11:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on April 14?$103.73Apr 14, 11:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on April 13?$2.13Apr 13, 13:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on April 11?$1.20Apr 11, 02:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 March 23-29?$167.27Apr 11, 02:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 25?$0.00Apr 1, 04:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 1?$22.35Mar 31, 23:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill $MARU reach $800M in Q1?$2.02Mar 31, 16:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - March 30, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET$1.28Mar 31, 03:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 4?$0.00Mar 31, 03:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 March 23-29?$163.59Mar 29, 14:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 64/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $18.53
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 26, 22:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 21:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.