Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027?
Probability
95¢
1h
+0.3pp
24h
+0.3pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$8.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 2
Wide spread — 7.5¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 3
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 13:01SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.6pp
to 92¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.2pp
to 98¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.6pp
to 99¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 98¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.6pp
to 99¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.4pp
to 99¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDT marketcap is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title on any day by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for USDT, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data. The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page. This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 1, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (7.5¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).