Past-Disguise
0x52ebca459280966f4a56240a05e38df8527067ac
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$17.2K
Total PnL
$-13.8K
Realised
$3.6K
Win rate
60%
97 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will A'ja Wilson win the 2026 WNBA MVP award?
550 shares @ 85.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Sep 25, 2026$437.25
$-30.25
- NO
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
400 shares @ 89.0¢·now 88.8¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$355.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 AL Central title?
568 shares @ 56.5¢·now 62.0¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$352.34
$30.97
- NO
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
414 shares @ 76.0¢·now 85.1¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$352.24
$37.67
- NO
NBA: LeBron James and Bronny James Jr. to Play Together in 2026-27?
385 shares @ 81.1¢·now 90.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$346.50
$34.16
- NO
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
400 shares @ 86.0¢·now 85.8¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$343.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 NL East title?
423 shares @ 77.8¢·now 80.5¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$340.53
$11.38
- YES
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
4520 shares @ 8.5¢·now 7.3¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$332.19
$-50.52
- YES
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?
3058 shares @ 13.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$321.13
$-75.94
- NO
Will July 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?
890 shares @ 21.6¢·now 36.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$320.40
$128.50
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on July 29?$9.18Jul 29, 16:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on July 31?$1.10Jul 29, 16:30 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 30?$31.26Jul 29, 16:30 UTC
- MERGEWill 2 Sanders endorsees win August 4 primaries?$5.62Jul 29, 16:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on July 31?$1.26Jul 29, 16:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on July 31?$127.40Jul 29, 16:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?$14.95Jul 29, 16:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 2 Sanders endorsees win August 4 primaries?$17.40Jul 29, 16:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 29?$7.41Jul 29, 16:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on July 30?$6.44Jul 29, 16:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 30?$38.64Jul 29, 16:24 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 30?$14.74Jul 29, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 30?$6.90Jul 29, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 31?$6.30Jul 29, 16:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 30?$0.05Jul 29, 16:14 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 30?$19.26Jul 29, 16:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 31?$1.46Jul 29, 16:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C on July 31?$7.89Jul 29, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 30?$19.74Jul 29, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 30?$100.35Jul 29, 16:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
78/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 97 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
97 closed markets, 60% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $19.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 15:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 16:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 97 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.