Scary-Molasses
0x533f297f64ccbd4a65aa3daae988675c198952f2
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
25
Open notional
$131.40
Total PnL
$-317.65
Realised
$-98.52
Win rate
10%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?
65 shares @ 77.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$64.81
$14.81
- YES
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?
25 shares @ 78.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$25.38
$5.38
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 25?
21 shares @ 97.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$20.62
$0.62
- NO
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
22 shares @ 92.5¢·now 95.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$20.59
$0.59
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October?
196 shares @ 5.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET
84 shares @ 32.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-27.36
- YES
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 10-16?
77 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on February 10?
66 shares @ 30.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Base launch a token in 2025?
56 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 13?
51 shares @ 35.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-18.19
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 25?$20.04May 25, 07:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 20?$10.62May 25, 07:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?$15.38May 25, 07:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 20?$10.04May 20, 07:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 14?$60.31May 20, 07:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 14?$50.60May 14, 04:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump visit China by May 15?$11.11May 14, 04:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by May 15?$10.04May 8, 12:20 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?$13.33May 8, 12:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 13?$52.96May 8, 12:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 15?$10.00Apr 15, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?$10.00Apr 15, 08:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 13?$50.00Apr 13, 09:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 13?$10.00Apr 13, 09:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 10?$52.55Apr 13, 09:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?$20.00Apr 10, 04:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?$10.00Apr 10, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 10?$50.00Apr 10, 03:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 8?$11.27Apr 9, 03:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 8?$15.93Apr 9, 03:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
10% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $19.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 25, 08:41 UTC
- Last active
- May 25, 07:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.