Muddy-Substance
0x537c592ec2a5a07a1548cd4fe0f2a6ba449e1b5e
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
43
Open notional
$153.50
Total PnL
$-318.63
Realised
$-2.27
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 43- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
161 shares @ 31.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$26.61
$-23.39
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
223 shares @ 8.9¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.16
$1.42
- YES
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
26 shares @ 11.4¢·now 74.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.64
$16.64
- YES
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
149 shares @ 18.8¢·now 9.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.58
$-14.42
- YES
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
44 shares @ 24.9¢·now 26.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$11.68
$0.68
- YES
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
550 shares @ 2.9¢·now 2.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.27
$-4.92
- YES
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
190 shares @ 5.5¢·now 5.1¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$9.79
$-0.66
- YES
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
338 shares @ 8.3¢·now 2.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.30
$-18.70
- NO
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
38 shares @ 26.0¢·now 19.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.50
$-2.50
- YES
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
176 shares @ 3.4¢·now 2.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.03
$-0.97
Recent activity
- REDEEMRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?$50.00Jun 9, 23:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?$5.12Jun 8, 02:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?$2.59Jun 8, 01:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?$1.04Jun 8, 01:33 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 2, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?$5.16Jun 1, 23:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$1.04Jun 1, 23:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by December 31, 2026?$10.30Jun 1, 23:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?$6.00Jun 1, 23:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 1, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 31, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 30, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 29, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?$1.04May 28, 03:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?$2.06May 28, 03:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?$3.00May 28, 03:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$11.37May 28, 03:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 28, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 27, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 26, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 19
- Avg trade size
- $8.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 16, 21:06 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 9, 23:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.