Ajar-Safety
0x542120de39859e9931daaff30967fd37e7e5449c
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$1.4K
Total PnL
$41.56
Realised
$-19.14
Win rate
60%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- YES
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
700 shares @ 71.2¢·now 81.0¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$566.74
$68.75
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
150 shares @ 84.3¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$128.25
$1.75
- YES
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
400 shares @ 24.0¢·now 25.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$102.00
$6.00
- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
100 shares @ 91.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$96.55
$5.57
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
120 shares @ 73.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$79.80
$-7.80
- YES
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
54 shares @ 92.6¢·now 97.4¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$52.57
$2.56
- YES
Will National Party be part of the next Government of New Zealand?
100 shares @ 30.0¢·now 45.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2026$45.00
$15.00
- NO
Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
60 shares @ 60.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$39.90
$3.90
- YES
Will Elly Schlein be the next Prime Minister of Italy?
100 shares @ 20.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2028$30.46
$10.49
- NO
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
50 shares @ 60.0¢·now 60.5¢·exp Sep 6, 2026$30.25
$0.25
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 26, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 25, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 20, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$24.78Jul 14, 10:59 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?$10.00Jul 12, 22:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
10 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 10
- Avg trade size
- $30.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 24, 00:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.