Simple-Thief
0x54e891b9a1a79eaaf7b3e8cc74364821f18a0fe0
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$83.59
Total PnL
$-126.41
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $85 in August?
22 shares @ 90.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$16.78
$-3.22
- NO
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?
23 shares @ 87.0¢·now 68.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$15.63
$-4.37
- NO
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
14 shares @ 71.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$10.92
$0.92
- NO
AI bubble burst in 2026?
13 shares @ 78.3¢·now 83.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.64
$0.64
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
16 shares @ 64.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$10.23
$0.23
- NO
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
15 shares @ 65.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$9.92
$-0.08
- YES
Fed rate hike in 2026?
15 shares @ 66.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$9.47
$-0.53
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
444 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase January 13-19?
29 shares @ 69.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19?
27 shares @ 73.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill SpaceX say "Cursor" during earnings call?$10.99Aug 4, 22:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX (SPCX) beat quarterly earnings?$10.15Aug 4, 16:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX say "Cursor" during earnings call?$10.04Aug 4, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $85 in August?$20.08Aug 4, 16:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$2.08Aug 4, 16:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$10.87Jul 31, 21:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX (SPCX) close above $120 end of July?$11.49Jul 31, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill STRC hit $100 by September 30?$20.10Jul 30, 15:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX (SPCX) close above $120 end of July?$10.00Jul 30, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX (SPCX) close above $110 end of July?$10.00Jul 30, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYAI bubble burst in 2026?$10.09Jul 30, 15:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?$10.14Jul 30, 15:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?$10.14Jul 30, 15:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$9.86Jul 30, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$10.00Jul 30, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$10.03Jul 30, 15:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?$10.12Jul 30, 15:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate hike in 2026?$10.17Jul 30, 15:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?$28.57Jul 30, 14:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$28.88Jul 30, 14:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $19.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 12, 07:19 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 4, 22:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.