Diligent-Religion
0x5562c7ee374070de66b30254547b377691883b41
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$724.55
Total PnL
$1.6K
Realised
$6.8K
Win rate
98%
88 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Josh Tenorio win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election?
233 shares @ 60.7¢·now 68.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$159.47
$18.24
- YES
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
222 shares @ 6.2¢·now 62.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$138.57
$124.81
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
160 shares @ 11.2¢·now 86.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$137.67
$119.84
- YES
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
66 shares @ 19.4¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$55.21
$42.36
- NO
US recession by end of 2026?
46 shares @ 75.4¢·now 88.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$40.48
$5.78
- NO
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?
34 shares @ 90.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$32.13
$1.54
- YES
Will Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?
90 shares @ 0.6¢·now 29.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$26.10
$25.54
- YES
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
23 shares @ 1.4¢·now 92.9¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$20.95
$20.63
- YES
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
64 shares @ 84.9¢·now 29.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.88
$-35.47
- YES
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
166 shares @ 11.2¢·now 10.1¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$16.78
$-1.84
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- REDEEMSamsun: Dan Added vs Lucas Poullain$6.1KJul 28, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYSamsun: Dan Added vs Lucas Poullain$908.96Jul 28, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYSamsun: Dan Added vs Lucas Poullain$5.0KJul 28, 16:52 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLIstanbul 2: Anastasia Zakharova vs Hanne Vandewinkel$19.46Jul 18, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYIstanbul 2: Anastasia Zakharova vs Hanne Vandewinkel$51.82Jul 18, 15:48 UTC
- TRADESELLIstanbul 2: Anastasia Zakharova vs Hanne Vandewinkel$125.73Jul 18, 15:38 UTC
- REDEEMIstanbul 2: Vendula Valdmannova vs Lanlana Tararudee$5.1KJul 18, 15:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYIstanbul 2: Anastasia Zakharova vs Hanne Vandewinkel$102.26Jul 18, 15:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYIstanbul 2: Vendula Valdmannova vs Lanlana Tararudee$5.0KJul 18, 14:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
68/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
98% win rate over 88 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
22 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
88 closed markets, 98% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?
$6.0K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $1.9K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 8, 00:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 88 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.