Questionable-Bafflement
0x55b721af9b6323ddc994db71878e1e0be5133775
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
17
Open notional
$27.6K
Total PnL
$284.31
Realised
$81.18
Win rate
100%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- NO
Trump out as President by July 31?
5000 shares @ 99.1¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.0K
$37.52
- NO
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
4000 shares @ 99.4¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$4.0K
$16.01
- NO
New "Stranger Things" episode released by July 31?
3937 shares @ 99.2¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.9K
$23.66
- NO
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?
2909 shares @ 98.8¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.9K
$27.74
- NO
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
4000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 57.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.3K
$282.00
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
4000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 43.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.7K
$-282.00
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by July 31, 2026?
1500 shares @ 99.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.5K
$11.25
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
1463 shares @ 95.7¢·now 97.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.4K
$25.29
- NO
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
1000 shares @ 94.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$955.00
$15.00
- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
1000 shares @ 92.5¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$925.00
$0.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.41Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.41Jul 27, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$497.50Jul 26, 05:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.41Jul 26, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$498.10Jul 25, 15:00 UTC
- REDEEMMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 24, 2026?$500.00Jul 25, 08:39 UTC
- YIELD$0.22Jul 25, 00:13 UTC
- SPLITWill J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$4.0KJul 24, 12:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYMykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 24, 2026?$498.00Jul 24, 12:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$5.0KJul 24, 00:32 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 24, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?$593.96Jul 23, 11:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$1.5KJul 22, 14:58 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$498.50Jul 21, 22:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$498.50Jul 21, 22:01 UTC
- YIELD$0.05Jul 21, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$499.05Jul 21, 19:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$499.05Jul 21, 19:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
15/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 66/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $446.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 16, 19:03 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.