Jumbo-Shutdown
0x55c1205e54a824e31dea576c96f75661e56e7db6
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
78
Open notional
$20.62
Total PnL
$-8.97
Realised
$16.07
Win rate
100%
39 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 78- YES
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
2199 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.60
$-3.74
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 2.5¢·now 2.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.90
$-0.20
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
4 shares @ 52.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.40
$0.40
- YES
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
170 shares @ 1.2¢·now 1.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.87
$-0.18
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026?
75 shares @ 1.3¢·now 1.9¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.46
$0.51
- YES
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
10 shares @ 13.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.05
$-0.25
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
10 shares @ 8.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$0.95
$0.15
- YES
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
200 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.90
$0.10
- YES
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
140 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.49
$-0.07
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?
170 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-0.36
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?$0.63Jul 24, 08:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$0.74Jul 24, 06:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$0.71Jul 24, 00:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$0.90Jul 23, 22:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$0.30Jul 23, 22:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?$0.16Jul 23, 21:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?$0.08Jul 23, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$0.30Jul 23, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$0.09Jul 23, 16:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$0.36Jul 22, 12:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?$0.37Jul 22, 12:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?$0.36Jul 22, 08:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?$0.14Jul 22, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026?$1.15Jul 21, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $500 by December 31, 2026?$1.79Jul 21, 18:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?$1.36Jul 21, 17:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?$1.03Jul 21, 07:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$0.36Jul 20, 19:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?$0.12Jul 20, 16:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?$0.08Jul 20, 16:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
73/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 39 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.
39 closed markets, 100% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $0.69
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 03:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 08:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 39 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.