Tan-Reduction
0x5669c2d70390d821291a6843e587c6500f310f13
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
99
Open notional
$1.7K
Total PnL
$-7.3K
Realised
$-655.34
Win rate
35%
52 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 99- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $725 Week of July 27 2026?
500 shares @ 77.8¢·now 68.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$342.49
$-46.50
- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in July?
351 shares @ 66.2¢·now 80.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$282.56
$50.09
- NO
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
2003 shares @ 12.8¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$150.23
$-107.31
- YES
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
999 shares @ 14.5¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$124.82
$-20.46
- NO
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%?
189 shares @ 65.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Jan 10, 2027$108.40
$-14.14
- YES
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
400 shares @ 23.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$74.00
$-18.00
- YES
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?
255 shares @ 32.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$72.65
$-9.05
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of July 27 2026?
238 shares @ 41.9¢·now 30.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$71.48
$-28.25
- YES
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
283 shares @ 34.0¢·now 24.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$67.92
$-28.30
- YES
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
110 shares @ 57.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$61.05
$-1.65
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 28?$47.28Jul 28, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 28?$1.54Jul 28, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 28?$1.54Jul 28, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 28?$1.54Jul 28, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 28?$1.54Jul 28, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 28?$1.53Jul 28, 14:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 28?$1.54Jul 28, 14:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 28?$1.54Jul 28, 14:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 28?$1.54Jul 28, 14:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in July?$5.94Jul 28, 12:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in July?$5.40Jul 28, 12:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in July?$1.62Jul 28, 12:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in July?$52.51Jul 28, 01:05 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$6.88Jul 28, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$3.41Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in July?$13.17Jul 27, 23:25 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 27?$360.00Jul 27, 22:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of July 27 2026?$139.83Jul 27, 22:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of July 27 2026?$20.80Jul 27, 20:34 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on July 27?$120.00Jul 27, 20:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
35% win rate over 52 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
52 closed markets, 35% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $40.91
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 10:32 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 14:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 52 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.