0x573cc8a05853bdc671800b2d01e1f2f3696621ec
0x573cc8a05853bdc671800b2d01e1f2f3696621ec
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$10.19
Total PnL
$-5.88
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Luis Fernando Camacho win the 2026 Santa Cruz gubernatorial election?
4 shares @ 62.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$4.03
$1.53
- NO
Will Laure Lavalette be the next mayor of Toulon?
4 shares @ 60.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$3.63
$1.45
- NO
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 61.0¢·now 78.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.28
$0.28
- YES
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
1 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.25
$0.25
- NO
Will Beinir Johannesen be the next Løgmaður of the Faroe Islands following the 2026 Faroese general election?
9 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-2.39
- NO
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?
8 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
- NO
Will Josée Massi be the next mayor of Toulon?
5 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
- NO
Will Google (GOOGL) close at <$285 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27?
2 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
2 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by May 31?$1.00Mar 27, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYVenezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?$1.00Mar 27, 07:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?$1.00Mar 27, 07:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google (GOOGL) close at <$285 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 23 – Mar 27?$1.00Mar 26, 16:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill César Dockweiler win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?$3.03Mar 26, 16:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Green Left win 25-29 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?$3.05Mar 26, 16:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Social Democrats’ Popular Vote Margin of Victory in the 2026 Denmark Parliamentary Election be between 10% and 15%?$0.00Mar 26, 16:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Venstre win <15 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?$3.29Mar 26, 16:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Livable Rotterdam (LR) win the most seats in Rotterdam’s 2026 municipal election?$0.00Mar 26, 16:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Venstre win 20-24 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?$3.52Mar 26, 16:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Social Democrats win 40-44 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?$3.57Mar 26, 16:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?$3.59Mar 26, 16:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Liberal Alliance win the third most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?$3.79Mar 26, 16:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Liberal Alliance win 20-24 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?$3.85Mar 26, 16:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Green Left win the second most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?$0.00Mar 26, 16:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Social Democrats’ Popular Vote Margin of Victory in the 2026 Denmark Parliamentary Election be between 10% and 15%?$2.50Mar 23, 07:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Venstre win <15 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?$2.50Mar 23, 07:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Green Left win the second most seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?$2.50Mar 23, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Social Democrats win 40-44 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?$2.50Mar 23, 00:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Green Left win 25-29 seats in the Danish Folketing in the 2026 Danish general election?$2.50Mar 22, 07:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $2.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 15, 09:39 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 27, 07:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.