0x57844e59259f8a06f66dc44eec87139ecbc734b8
0x57844e59259f8a06f66dc44eec87139ecbc734b8
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$225.66
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$-35.27
Win rate
21%
53 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
60 shares @ 50.0¢·now 77.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$46.56
$16.56
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
60 shares @ 20.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$39.30
$27.30
- YES
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?
80 shares @ 33.3¢·now 46.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$37.02
$10.19
- YES
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
60 shares @ 3.6¢·now 40.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$24.33
$22.19
- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
60 shares @ 50.0¢·now 35.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.30
$-8.70
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
60 shares @ 20.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$17.09
$5.09
- YES
No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027
60 shares @ 6.7¢·now 10.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$6.30
$2.30
- YES
Will UBS or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?
90 shares @ 5.3¢·now 4.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$3.69
$-1.05
- YES
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
120 shares @ 7.7¢·now 1.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.34
$-6.89
- YES
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
60 shares @ 3.6¢·now 3.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.12
$-0.02
Recent activity
No activity on record.
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
21% win rate over 53 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
53 closed markets, 21% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- —
- Last active
- —
- Win rate sample
- 53 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.