Recent-Pumpkinseed-Wagon
0x57aa56bda3f7e6cc666850a8843ec25025231e05
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
12
Open notional
$703.01
Total PnL
$-1.6K
Realised
$-38.83
Win rate
0%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
227 shares @ 66.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$162.50
$12.50
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
238 shares @ 42.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$132.14
$32.14
- YES
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
278 shares @ 36.0¢·now 47.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$131.94
$31.94
- YES
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?
119 shares @ 83.9¢·now 66.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$79.28
$-20.72
- YES
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by December 31, 2026?
926 shares @ 10.8¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$69.46
$-30.54
- YES
Will PayPal be acquired before 2027?
139 shares @ 72.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$67.36
$-32.64
- YES
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
326 shares @ 46.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$60.33
$-89.67
- YES
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
5319 shares @ 18.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1000.00
- YES
Spain leading at halftime?
728 shares @ 13.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Spain to win the second half?
417 shares @ 47.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Aug 16, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 10, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 9, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 8, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 7, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 6, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 5, 02:31 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 4, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 3, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 2, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 1, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 31, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 30, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Turkey military clash before 2027?$142.34Jul 28, 21:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
11 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 11
- Avg trade size
- $133.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 16, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 16, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.