Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

1. 1

   Down 4pp over 24h

   Now 18¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Momentum signal firing

   Probability moved down 3.5pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

3. 3

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.