Thorny-Part
0x580c0b370de89a1d839f257d47f73ff4e2fc6db8
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
20
Open notional
$55.67
Total PnL
$0.82
Realised
$-0.05
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
10 shares @ 31.5¢·now 86.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.63
$5.47
- NO
Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
5 shares @ 87.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.00
$0.65
- NO
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
5 shares @ 61.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$5.00
$1.95
- YES
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
5 shares @ 26.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.00
$3.70
- YES
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50?
5 shares @ 86.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$5.00
$0.70
- NO
FDA approves Retatrutide this year?
5 shares @ 76.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.87
$1.07
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
5 shares @ 83.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.72
$0.57
- NO
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026?
5 shares @ 80.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$4.63
$0.63
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 82.0¢·now 92.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.62
$0.52
- NO
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
5 shares @ 78.0¢·now 73.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.65
$-0.25
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?$5.00May 11, 13:02 UTC
- REDEEMIran leadership change by April 30?$5.00May 2, 23:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Shevchenko by April 30?$5.00May 2, 23:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?$5.00May 2, 23:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iran strike Leviathan Field by April 30?$5.00May 2, 23:06 UTC
- REDEEMIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?$5.00May 2, 23:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?$10.00May 2, 23:06 UTC
- REDEEMUS escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?$10.00May 2, 23:06 UTC
- REDEEMIran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?$5.00Apr 22, 14:34 UTC
- REDEEMUS escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?$5.00Apr 20, 22:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?$0.00Apr 13, 21:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill annual inflation increase by ≥3.4% in March?$0.00Apr 12, 00:47 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran ceasefire by April 7?$0.00Apr 12, 00:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael military action against Fordow nuclear facility by April 30?$1.00Apr 10, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 10, 2026?$1.00Apr 10, 18:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?$1.00Apr 10, 18:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill annual inflation increase by 3.3% in March?$5.00Apr 10, 16:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C or higher on April 9?$8.05Apr 10, 01:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?$1.00Apr 9, 21:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026?$5.00Apr 9, 21:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
19 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 19
- Avg trade size
- $2.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 7, 20:47 UTC
- Last active
- May 11, 13:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.