Frightening-Tenor
0x5857dfc890e445b59863f672aba32a582fded08b
Wallet digest
Activity score
37/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$-3.53
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
2500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
1250 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-3.75
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -2°C on February 14?
965 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2026$0.00
$-4.29
- YES
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?
505 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-0.51
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 35°C or below on February 18?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 15?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22?
312 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- HOUSTON COUGARS
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars
256 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-9.99
- YES
Will Gemini be accused of insider trading?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament?
217 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?$4.28Jun 5, 14:56 UTC
- TRADESELLNetanyahu out by end of 2026?$4.61Jun 5, 14:56 UTC
- TRADESELLBillionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?$3.00Jun 5, 14:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.90Jun 5, 14:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$8.61Jun 5, 14:56 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by December 31, 2026?$6.31Jun 5, 14:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$9.01Jun 5, 14:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?$5.00Jun 5, 14:55 UTC
- REDEEMUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?$5.23Jun 5, 14:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?$5.25Jun 5, 14:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?$5.49Jun 5, 14:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?$6.40Jun 5, 14:55 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 5, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 4, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 3, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 2, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 1, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 31, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 30, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 29, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
7 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 7
- Avg trade size
- $5.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 29, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 5, 14:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.