Lawful-Manor
0x5918dc716df1e2da25d43e6a7d40df13c09aea73
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$35.60
Total PnL
$-18.70
Realised
$-0.31
Win rate
0%
5 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Fed rate hike in 2026?
43 shares @ 46.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$22.39
$2.39
- YES
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in August?
33 shares @ 15.4¢·now 30.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$9.75
$4.75
- YES
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in August?
26 shares @ 19.5¢·now 13.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$3.46
$-1.54
- YES
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
42 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 meeting?
35 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?
19 shares @ 31.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
15 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
11 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?
9 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?
9 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in August?$5.20Aug 10, 05:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in August?$5.21Aug 10, 05:37 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 31?$11.82Aug 1, 07:31 UTC
- REDEEMDAX (DAX) Up or Down on July 31?$12.02Aug 1, 07:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYDAX (DAX) Up or Down on July 31?$10.07Jul 31, 04:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 31?$10.06Jul 31, 04:45 UTC
- TRADESELLNo change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?$135.92Jul 30, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?$101.25Jul 30, 04:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$5.13Jul 30, 04:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win on 2026-07-06?$9.62Jul 30, 04:53 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 28?$12.35Jul 30, 04:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$139.66Jul 30, 04:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?$30.39Jul 28, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on July 28?$10.08Jul 28, 05:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$101.42Jul 28, 05:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?$1.03Jul 4, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill George Russell win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?$1.03Jul 4, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?$5.09Jul 3, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win on 2026-07-06?$5.07Jul 3, 19:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil win on 2026-07-05?$5.07Jul 3, 19:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 66/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $16.06
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 1, 08:21 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 10, 05:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.