Fruitful-Safeguard
0x5a79e83ccb6b3c58b4730eeabb9115101f0f6296
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
82
Open notional
$35.8K
Total PnL
$-434.31
Realised
$-396.77
Win rate
45%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 82- NO
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?
3197 shares @ 75.3¢·now 92.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$2.9K
$531.75
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
2600 shares @ 91.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.5K
$91.00
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
2400 shares @ 87.4¢·now 87.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$2.1K
$2.00
- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
2068 shares @ 97.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.0K
$10.92
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?
2050 shares @ 96.2¢·now 96.3¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$2.0K
$1.85
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?
1830 shares @ 97.9¢·now 95.1¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$1.7K
$-50.76
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
1750 shares @ 95.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.6K
$-96.25
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?
1638 shares @ 98.4¢·now 95.2¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.6K
$-53.70
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?
1480 shares @ 91.7¢·now 86.5¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$1.3K
$-76.40
- NO
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?
1300 shares @ 96.9¢·now 95.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.2K
$-20.80
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?$126.42Jul 28, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?$94.81Jul 28, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$764.00Jul 28, 18:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?$75.35Jul 28, 18:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?$328.34Jul 28, 17:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?$158.39Jul 28, 17:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$290.00Jul 28, 17:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$969.90Jul 28, 17:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$97.32Jul 28, 16:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran invades Kuwait by July 31?$199.40Jul 28, 16:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$99.80Jul 28, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31?$89.46Jul 28, 16:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?$435.00Jul 28, 16:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$44.82Jul 28, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$356.85Jul 28, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$110.33Jul 28, 16:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$139.58Jul 28, 16:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$108.67Jul 28, 16:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$149.70Jul 28, 16:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$1.5KJul 28, 16:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
45% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 2 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
65%
Sample
low
2 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
$15.1K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $360.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 14:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 19:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.