0x5a80d0be5731941fd2e3cf369d00b3b8250ea983
0x5a80d0be5731941fd2e3cf369d00b3b8250ea983
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
76
Open notional
$34.60
Total PnL
$-672.14
Realised
$307.58
Win rate
59%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 76- YES
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22?
1447 shares @ 14.1¢·now 1.3¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$18.09
$-186.04
- NO
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22?
13 shares @ 84.6¢·now 98.8¢·exp Nov 30, 2026$12.89
$1.85
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
54 shares @ 22.6¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.97
$-9.21
- YES
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
830 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$0.41
$-3.73
- YES
Will AfD win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
20 shares @ 13.2¢·now 0.9¢·exp Sep 6, 2026$0.18
$-2.46
- YES
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2 shares @ 2.6¢·now 2.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.04
$-0.00
- YES
Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
2 shares @ 4.8¢·now 1.3¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$0.02
$-0.07
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?
8497 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-19.58
- NO
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?
4960 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-4.96
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?
2437 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-4.87
Recent activity
- MERGEWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?$65.00Jun 10, 10:31 UTC
- MERGEWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?$65.00Jun 10, 10:31 UTC
- SPLITWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?$65.00Jun 10, 04:28 UTC
- SPLITWill the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?$65.00Jun 10, 04:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?$171.62Jun 9, 23:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9?$10.50Jun 9, 15:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 8?$8.00Jun 9, 05:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 8?$6.50Jun 8, 15:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8?$4.62Jun 7, 15:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9?$3.99Jun 7, 15:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9?$4.29Jun 7, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8?$4.14Jun 7, 15:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 8?$5.07Jun 7, 15:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8?$5.36Jun 7, 15:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 8?$4.58Jun 7, 14:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 7?$4.96Jun 7, 10:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 7?$4.39Jun 7, 10:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 7?$0.57Jun 7, 04:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 7?$0.61Jun 7, 04:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 7?$0.48Jun 7, 04:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
59% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $8.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 27, 07:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 10, 10:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.