Recent-Relief
0x5be0015daa74cb321ce03d9a45d267eef76eb065
Wallet digest
Activity score
94/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$28.72
Total PnL
$27.29
Realised
$82.35
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
67 shares @ 15.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$25.00
$15.00
- YES
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
243 shares @ 10.0¢·now 1.2¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$2.92
$-21.38
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
21 shares @ 14.0¢·now 3.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.80
$-2.20
- YES
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?
274 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
222 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Abdul-Malik out as leader of Houthis by December 31?
200 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Another US military action against Iran before 2026?
72 shares @ 15.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-11.00
- YES
Israel strike on Yemen by December 31?
31 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
30 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-0.48
Recent activity
- REWARD$1.79Jul 15, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$23.96Jun 21, 00:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$1.40Jun 21, 00:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$6.44Jun 21, 00:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$44.80Jun 21, 00:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$33.60Jun 21, 00:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$9.20Jun 20, 19:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$1.00Jun 20, 19:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$3.00Jun 20, 18:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$2.29Jun 20, 16:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$4.65Jun 20, 15:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$0.13Jun 20, 13:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$0.12Jun 20, 13:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$0.85Jun 20, 13:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$50.00Jun 20, 07:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$20.00Jun 20, 07:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?$10.00Jun 20, 07:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?$15.00Jun 20, 07:04 UTC
- TRADESELL Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$381.82Jun 19, 06:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$10.00Jun 19, 03:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 73/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $27.61
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 12, 04:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.