Ethical-Caribou
0x5d0f03cf1243a3e21262d6cf844795afd9fff0ad
Wallet digest
Activity score
94/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
8
Open notional
$1.5M
Total PnL
$-77.5K
Realised
$81.9K
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
1684680 shares @ 93.7¢·now 85.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$1.4M
$-148.1K
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
39399 shares @ 72.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$19.9K
$-8.5K
- NO
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
32879 shares @ 39.9¢·now 41.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$13.6K
$511.60
- YES
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
40763 shares @ 30.8¢·now 32.6¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$13.3K
$751.34
- YES
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
52662 shares @ 6.1¢·now 1.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$921.59
$-2.3K
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
339 shares @ 23.0¢·now 19.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$66.02
$-11.85
- YES
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026?
18 shares @ 38.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$11.30
$4.54
- NO
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
4500 shares @ 41.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.9K
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$11.40Jun 13, 05:27 UTC
- REWARD$0.47Jun 12, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$11.35Jun 12, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$89.8KJun 11, 22:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$9.9KJun 11, 22:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$24.9KJun 11, 22:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$6.04Jun 11, 22:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$133.8KJun 11, 22:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$9.4KJun 11, 21:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$3.21Jun 11, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$7.2KJun 11, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$2.0KJun 11, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$19.80Jun 11, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$13.89Jun 11, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$7.70Jun 11, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$12.86Jun 11, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$3.21Jun 11, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$359.99Jun 11, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$5.76Jun 11, 21:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$3.60Jun 11, 21:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$65.3K
Trades
4
Buy share
100%
Window
May 18, 11:40 UTC → May 31, 05:34 UTC
- BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?$44.5K@89¢May 31, 05:34 UTC
- BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$6.5K@84¢May 20, 14:43 UTC
- BUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$5.1K@86¢May 19, 05:01 UTC
- BUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?$9.2K@94¢May 18, 11:34 UTC
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$65.3K
4 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
limited
4 ledger trades
Top market concentration
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
$44.5K · 68% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $6.0K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 11, 21:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 05:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.