Responsible-Legume
0x5d2f7bccc1e4ca204ade22ff193d2759ca6324de
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
29
Open notional
$10.7K
Total PnL
$2.6K
Realised
$16.54
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- YES
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
16912 shares @ 8.5¢·now 12.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$2.1K
$683.32
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
3332 shares @ 20.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.6K
$949.53
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
1100 shares @ 89.0¢·now 96.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$77.55
- NO
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
1000 shares @ 73.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$855.00
$125.00
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
700 shares @ 50.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$633.50
$283.50
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
4000 shares @ 14.0¢·now 14.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$578.00
$18.00
- YES
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?
16971 shares @ 2.9¢·now 2.8¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$466.70
$-22.67
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
5267 shares @ 5.7¢·now 8.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$452.41
$153.41
- NO
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
400 shares @ 71.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$370.00
$86.00
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
600 shares @ 51.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$368.99
$63.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.27Jul 25, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.27Jul 24, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.27Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$21.22Jul 22, 19:05 UTC
- YIELD$0.27Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.27Jul 21, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$26.58Jul 21, 07:46 UTC
- YIELD$0.27Jul 21, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Raphaël Glucksmann announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?$1.37Jul 20, 19:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Raphaël Glucksmann announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?$41.28Jul 20, 19:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Raphaël Glucksmann announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?$10.79Jul 20, 19:34 UTC
- YIELD$0.27Jul 19, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$26.58Jul 18, 12:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$26.58Jul 18, 12:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$26.58Jul 18, 12:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Democratic Senate incumbents not win in more than four nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?$0.05Jul 18, 00:28 UTC
- YIELD$0.27Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$5.36Jul 17, 12:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$52.50Jul 17, 11:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?$2.66Jul 17, 05:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
23 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $13.44
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 7, 22:27 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.