Mundane-Hood
0x5e73afb20c2b27caccdaad9e49b97fd336576697
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$30.6K
Total PnL
$-11.9K
Realised
$16.6K
Win rate
67%
63 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
15996 shares @ 50.6¢·now 71.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$11.4K
$3.3K
- NO
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
2483 shares @ 92.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$2.5K
$184.96
- YES
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
18175 shares @ 29.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.3K
$-3.0K
- YES
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?
3803 shares @ 56.3¢·now 59.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$2.3K
$120.85
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
7428 shares @ 22.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.6K
$-37.14
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
2383 shares @ 61.6¢·now 62.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.5K
$20.60
- NO
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
1200 shares @ 75.0¢·now 76.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$913.79
$13.20
- NO
Will Benjamin Netanyahu sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
857 shares @ 96.7¢·now 99.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$852.89
$24.39
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
800 shares @ 95.7¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$796.40
$31.00
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
3931 shares @ 12.8¢·now 19.7¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$774.31
$269.93
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?$42.00Jul 28, 13:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?$8.06Jul 28, 13:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?$2.00Jul 28, 12:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?$3.50Jul 28, 12:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?$236.47Jul 28, 11:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?$6.33Jul 28, 11:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?$500.23Jul 28, 11:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?$1.4KJul 28, 11:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?$0.98Jul 28, 10:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?$288.26Jul 28, 06:30 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$170.19Jul 28, 06:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?$669.75Jul 28, 06:12 UTC
- MERGEUkraine election called by December 31, 2026?$1.7KJul 28, 06:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine election called by December 31, 2026?$1.5KJul 28, 06:10 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$10.13Jul 28, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- REWARD$3.13Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.1KJul 27, 23:55 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?$200.00Jul 27, 22:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill three people dissent the July Fed decision?$14.34Jul 27, 19:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
72/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 63 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
63 closed markets, 67% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
$11.5K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $191.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 14:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 13:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 63 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.