Offbeat-Pole
0x5f8ec8b9c07547d93ac7206ef75c1b625e6021b7
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$57.9K
Total PnL
$810.39
Realised
$20.39
Win rate
44%
9 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
50589 shares @ 88.9¢·now 77.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$39.1K
$-5.9K
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
39693 shares @ 8.1¢·now 22.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$8.8K
$5.6K
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
6597 shares @ 84.1¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$5.6K
$91.23
- NO
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
13369 shares @ 12.1¢·now 22.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$3.0K
$1.3K
- YES
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
6597 shares @ 15.6¢·now 13.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$890.64
$-139.57
- NO
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
360 shares @ 93.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$340.38
$5.71
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
40248 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$100.62
$-102.03
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
36800 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$92.00
$-88.14
- YES
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
30 shares @ 19.3¢·now 22.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$6.72
$0.93
- YES
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?
2143 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.3¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$5.36
$-0.89
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$23.16Jul 28, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$6.02Jul 28, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?$0.68Jul 28, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?$0.30Jul 28, 07:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$123.06Jul 28, 06:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$101.71Jul 28, 05:48 UTC
- YIELD$0.58Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$8.34Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.35Jul 28, 00:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.01Jul 28, 00:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$0.93Jul 28, 00:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$8.16Jul 27, 23:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.17Jul 27, 23:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$21.70Jul 27, 23:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.05Jul 27, 23:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.65Jul 27, 23:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$7.31Jul 27, 23:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$111.07Jul 27, 19:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.02Jul 27, 15:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.35Jul 27, 15:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
44% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 72/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $70.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 22:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 17:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.