Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?
Probability
21¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$810.14
Liquidity
$24.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 1272.6h
- 23:22SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 1273h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 18¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 18¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 18¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 18¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 18¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 19¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?
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Macro · Vol $27.00
- 99¢0.0pp
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $1.7M
- 98¢+4.0pp
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Macro · Vol $1.1M
- 0¢0.0pp
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $1.0M
- 0¢0.0pp
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Macro · Vol $934.4K
- 0¢-0.7pp
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- 1¢-0.5pp
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for July 2026, currently scheduled for July 28-29. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no July meeting takes place by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 17, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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