Aware-Carbohydrate
0x5f95f768511ba2e50c576066fd611c77335746c4
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$5.12
Total PnL
$-49.63
Realised
$6.39
Win rate
78%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Iran leadership change by September 30?
10 shares @ 9.0¢·now 10.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.00
$0.10
- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 9.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.85
$-0.05
- YES
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?
15 shares @ 8.4¢·now 2.7¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$0.40
$-0.86
- YES
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
5 shares @ 8.5¢·now 5.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.30
$-0.13
- YES
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 by December 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 4.5¢·now 2.9¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.28
$-0.16
- YES
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?
15 shares @ 4.4¢·now 1.8¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$0.28
$-0.38
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
5 shares @ 9.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.28
$-0.17
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $700 by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 7.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.27
$-0.08
- YES
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 9.0¢·now 5.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.26
$-0.19
- YES
Deel IPO before 2027?
5 shares @ 9.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.23
$-0.22
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.34Jul 29, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?$0.21Jul 28, 23:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Karolina Muchova win the 2026 Women’s US Open?$0.30Jul 28, 14:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marlon Vera be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?$0.04Jul 28, 13:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Deiveson Figueiredo be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?$0.04Jul 28, 13:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Cory Sandhagen be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?$0.06Jul 28, 12:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by September 30?$0.45Jul 28, 11:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by September 30?$0.45Jul 28, 11:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sergio De Larrea win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?$0.04Jul 28, 09:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?$0.15Jul 28, 09:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alex Karaban win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?$0.04Jul 28, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$0.14Jul 28, 07:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?$0.43Jul 28, 07:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's US Open?$0.04Jul 28, 06:45 UTC
- TRADESELLNetanyahu out by July 31?$0.01Jul 28, 06:42 UTC
- TRADESELLIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?$0.01Jul 28, 06:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup?$0.85Jul 28, 06:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?$0.33Jul 28, 06:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Max Holloway be ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at the end of 2026?$0.05Jul 28, 06:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by December 31, 2026?$0.10Jun 20, 20:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
78% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 19, 16:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 10:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.