Fluid-Masonry
0x60a82a9abb8fed5a860bbd7bf74941316c7d7d37
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$8.1K
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$441.01
Win rate
50%
84 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
356 shares @ 84.2¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$333.21
$32.98
- YES
Fed rate hike in 2026?
358 shares @ 66.2¢·now 75.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$270.22
$33.14
- NO
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
357 shares @ 63.9¢·now 75.3¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$268.56
$40.66
- YES
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
277 shares @ 94.2¢·now 96.5¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$267.14
$6.62
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
237 shares @ 93.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$216.53
$-3.46
- NO
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?
220 shares @ 95.3¢·now 96.5¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$212.30
$2.52
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
477 shares @ 70.3¢·now 43.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$205.36
$-129.90
- YES
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
193 shares @ 91.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$192.92
$16.05
- YES
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
597 shares @ 42.2¢·now 30.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$182.16
$-70.04
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
220 shares @ 82.1¢·now 80.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$177.17
$-3.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$10.00Jul 28, 19:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Nazi" or "Hitler" during cabinet meeting?$9.98Jul 28, 18:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$10.00Jul 28, 18:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$10.00Jul 28, 18:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$10.00Jul 28, 18:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$10.00Jul 28, 18:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?$105.26Jul 28, 18:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$274.32Jul 28, 18:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$7.26Jul 28, 18:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?$5.09Jul 28, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$15.00Jul 28, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$6.04Jul 28, 17:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Supreme Court" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?$20.00Jul 28, 17:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$6.95Jul 28, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$2.02Jul 28, 17:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$20.00Jul 28, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?$10.00Jul 28, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Supreme Court" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?$7.33Jul 28, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 31?$4.49Jul 28, 16:22 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?$7.96Jul 28, 16:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 84 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
84 closed markets, 50% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $9.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 14:27 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 19:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 84 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.