Lighthearted-Distribution
0x61c41271d1561dd4a288cd8b5d747290bff57696
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$9.38
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$-172.51
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- NO
Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 95.9¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.16
$0.16
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
6 shares @ 64.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$4.22
$0.22
- NO
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
404 shares @ 80.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-325.22
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on February 24?
340 shares @ 88.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-300.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on February 23?
129 shares @ 38.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
109 shares @ 96.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-105.37
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 25?
102 shares @ 97.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 24?
100 shares @ 74.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-74.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on February 20?
94 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 20, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on February 24?
83 shares @ 60.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-49.74
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$10.71Jul 21, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?$3.11Jul 20, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 31, 2026?$5.01Jul 20, 02:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$6.87Jul 20, 01:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$2.83Jul 15, 01:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$4.08Jul 15, 01:40 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$1.64Jul 14, 06:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.06Jul 14, 06:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$2.04Jul 14, 06:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?$4.06Jul 13, 08:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?$1.00Jun 29, 05:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$5.00Jun 29, 05:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?$5.74Jun 29, 05:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?$5.03Jun 23, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?$10.21Jun 23, 10:06 UTC
- TRADESELLGPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?$2.26Jun 23, 10:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?$10.09Jun 15, 08:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?$2.11May 20, 01:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?$2.00May 18, 10:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 4?$10.87Mar 5, 01:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 66/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $32.32
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 24, 23:32 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 18:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.