Anguished-Glance
0x61f7582d4a35793187e059a10782caf5bb8608ae
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
100
Open notional
$8.38
Total PnL
$-494.41
Realised
$120.14
Win rate
100%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 100- NO
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
17 shares @ 30.2¢·now 21.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.66
$-1.47
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
14 shares @ 19.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.38
$0.65
- YES
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?
14 shares @ 36.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.33
$-3.71
- REAL MADRID
Supercopa Final: Real Madrid vs. Barcelona
983 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2025$0.00
$-28.00
- YES
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
556 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
515 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-14.61
- YES
Base airdrop in Q2 2025?
500 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Maduro out by November 30, 2025?
419 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will Extended launch a token by March 31 2026?
413 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-12.00
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?
286 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance AND Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 0.5$3.99Jul 19, 10:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$4.52Jul 19, 10:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. England: Team to Win AND Will France vs. England end in a draw?$1.99Jul 18, 19:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-07-14?$11.00Jul 14, 19:40 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Norway vs. England end in a draw?$11.43Jul 12, 00:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Norway vs. England end in a draw?$3.11Jul 10, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$6.28Jul 10, 13:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain vs. Belgium end in a draw?$3.07Jul 8, 19:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Switzerland vs. Colombia end in a draw?$9.38Jul 7, 23:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win on 2026-07-09? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?$2.99Jul 7, 12:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $3.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 28, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 10:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.