Official-Rat
0x63336acac626f818acb27283f50a61753e4522fc
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
20
Open notional
$13.49
Total PnL
$-13.63
Realised
$-0.12
Win rate
0%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- NO
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
5 shares @ 56.0¢·now 53.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.87
$-0.13
- YES
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
3 shares @ 59.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.19
$0.19
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
3 shares @ 68.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$1.99
$-0.01
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
3 shares @ 63.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$1.83
$-0.17
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
3 shares @ 61.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.66
$-0.34
- MANOJ DHAMNE MANAS
Astana: Vadym Ursu vs Manoj Dhamne Manas
2 shares @ 61.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$1.64
$0.64
- MERT ALKAYA
Astana: Sidharth Rawat vs Mert Alkaya
1 shares @ 75.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$1.33
$0.33
- YES
Will Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
78 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
54 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYAstana: Masamichi Imamura vs Antoine Ghibaudo$1.02Aug 11, 05:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYTodi: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Juan Bautista Torres$1.02Aug 11, 05:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYAstana: Sidharth Rawat vs Mert Alkaya$1.01Aug 11, 05:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYAstana: Vadym Ursu vs Manoj Dhamne Manas$1.02Aug 11, 05:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?$1.02Aug 11, 05:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$1.02Aug 9, 05:06 UTC
- REDEEMLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks$1.61Aug 9, 04:48 UTC
- REDEEMLos Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins$1.67Aug 9, 04:48 UTC
- TRADESELL2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House$3.20Aug 8, 06:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYAthletics vs. Boston Red Sox$1.01Aug 8, 06:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYLos Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks$1.02Aug 8, 06:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYColorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals$1.02Aug 8, 06:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYChicago Cubs vs. Kansas City Royals$1.02Aug 8, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYLos Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins$1.02Aug 8, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?$1.02Aug 8, 04:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$1.02Aug 8, 04:58 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?$2.50Aug 8, 04:46 UTC
- TRADEBUY2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House$3.02May 29, 05:41 UTC
- TRADEBUY2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$3.05May 29, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?$2.00May 29, 05:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $1.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 14, 11:34 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 05:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.