Melodic-Health
0x635ed237f4e830e48159b3178f14a5bdb64e1f63
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
85
Open notional
$74.37
Total PnL
$-42.23
Realised
$22.29
Win rate
60%
52 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 85- YES
Will Trump name "Gianni" or "Infantino" in April?
21 shares @ 6.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$20.94
$19.69
- NO
Will Trump say "NATO" during King Charles visit?
9 shares @ 18.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$8.89
$7.27
- YES
Will Trump say "Declaration of Independence" during King Charles visit?
8 shares @ 75.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$7.87
$1.96
- YES
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?
5 shares @ 33.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$5.08
$3.39
- YES
Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in April?
5 shares @ 56.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$4.65
$2.05
- YES
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?
5 shares @ 28.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$4.64
$3.31
- NO
Will Trump name "Homan" in April?
3 shares @ 72.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$3.26
$0.91
- YES
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31?
3 shares @ 74.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$2.87
$0.73
- NO
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
3 shares @ 71.0¢·now 81.0¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$2.79
$0.34
- YES
Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
5 shares @ 14.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$2.02
$1.32
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.05Jul 10, 23:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rodina win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.61Jul 5, 17:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rodina win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.04Jul 5, 17:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rodina win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.24Jul 3, 14:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rodina win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.24Jul 3, 14:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.25Jul 1, 04:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$0.06Jun 29, 00:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?$0.92Jun 24, 16:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mark Kenneth Arness be the Democratic nominee for MD-05?$0.00Jun 2, 04:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mark Kenneth Arness be the Democratic nominee for MD-05?$0.00Jun 2, 03:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Corinna Contreras advance from the CA-48 primary election?$2.10May 31, 22:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Corinna Contreras advance from the CA-48 primary election?$4.13May 31, 22:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Corinna Contreras advance from the CA-48 primary election?$2.95May 31, 22:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Corinna Contreras advance from the CA-48 primary election?$3.22May 31, 22:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Arthur Dixon advance from the CA-34 primary election?$0.04May 31, 19:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the San Diego Padres clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?$3.22May 28, 07:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Francis Hoffman advance from the CA-40 primary election?$0.08May 28, 01:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Chris Richardson advance from the CA-03 primary election?$1.48May 25, 10:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mitch Clemmons advance from the CA-41 primary election?$0.18May 23, 11:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lisa Ramirez advance from the CA-40 primary election?$0.34May 23, 07:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
76/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 52 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
52 closed markets, 60% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.97
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 17, 03:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 23:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 52 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.