Will Trump say "Declaration of Independence" during King Charles visit?
Probability
40¢
1h
-1.0pp
24h
-11.5pp
24h Vol
$3.64
Liquidity
$747.85
Probability (last 7 days)
-16.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 12pp over 24h
Now 40¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 12.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 106.1h
- 13:53SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 106h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:53PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 42¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.0pp
to 41¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 47¢
- 04:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 45¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 46¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 46¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 46¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 45¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 47¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 45¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 51¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 51¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 52¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 51¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 52¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
King Charles is scheduled to visit the White House from April 27 to April 30, 2026 (https://time.com/article/2026/04/01/king-charles-camilla-royal-state-visit-washington-america-trump/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at events featuring King Charles from April 27 through April 30, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. This market is explicitly about events featuring both Donald Trump and King Charles from April 27 through April 30, 2026. All such events featuring both on these dates count. Speeches, events, or comments which feature one named individual but not the other, will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the events contain a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. If this visit is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- White HouseOfficial government sourceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (12.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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