Fatherly-Gong
0x637dfbd331e271aa980346744a9fa43410763546
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
69
Open notional
$134.31
Total PnL
$-105.75
Realised
$4.09
Win rate
40%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 69- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
50 shares @ 83.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$45.25
$3.75
- NO
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?
71 shares @ 37.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$28.88
$2.50
- NO
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?
40 shares @ 49.9¢·now 54.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.84
$1.65
- NO
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
16 shares @ 60.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.24
$-1.36
- YES
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime?
10 shares @ 38.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$3.82
$-0.05
- YES
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?
10 shares @ 29.0¢·now 29.5¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$3.01
$0.05
- YES
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?
10 shares @ 29.0¢·now 28.5¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$2.91
$-0.05
- YES
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?
10 shares @ 27.0¢·now 26.5¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$2.71
$-0.05
- YES
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?
10 shares @ 25.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$2.51
$-0.05
- YES
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
20 shares @ 8.9¢·now 11.8¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$2.35
$0.57
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?$10.22Jun 18, 18:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?$10.25Jun 17, 19:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYIraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime?$3.43Jun 16, 19:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYGermany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime?$3.94Jun 16, 19:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?$2.62Jun 16, 19:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?$3.02Jun 16, 19:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?$1.04Jun 16, 19:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?$2.82Jun 16, 19:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?$3.13Jun 16, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?$2.72Jun 16, 19:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill England vs. Croatia end in a draw?$2.45Jun 16, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill England vs. Croatia end in a draw?$2.72Jun 16, 19:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?$2.10Jun 16, 19:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?$2.00Jun 16, 19:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?$1.32Jun 16, 19:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France vs. Senegal end in a draw?$1.13Jun 16, 19:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw?$2.20Jun 16, 19:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?$1.47Jun 16, 19:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?$10.23Jun 16, 08:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?$10.22Jun 16, 03:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $2.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 13, 23:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 18, 18:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.